Spotlight on GCSE Business: Heatwave Effects on Farms and Supermarkets

Summer 2026 in the UK has comprised a series of heatwaves. The effects on businesses, such as farms and supermarkets, as well as consumers will last long after the weather has cooled down.

Heat stress starts in the field long before produce reaches a shop.

Farming Businesses

Farmers in the UK are fearing this year's harvest to be the worst on record. Most crops have ideal growing conditions. When temperatures rise above it, plants protect themselves and this survival response can have a significant impact on farming businesses:

• Smaller or lower quality harvests.

• More irrigation demand and farmers may have to choose which fields to save if water is limited.

• Increased pests and disease.

  
  

The timing of heatwaves is as much of a problem as actual temperature. A short hot spell after harvest may do little harm. Of course, in 2026 there have been a series of heatwaves from May through to August, as well as a very dry spring.

Dairy cattle, pigs, poultry and sheep can all suffer from heat and humidity too, such as

reduced milk yield and lower weight gain. Farmers may incur additional costs such as through providing extra water troughs, fans, misting systems and shade structures.

Of course, farmers ultimately want to sell their produce to supermarkets or other businesses in the supply chain.

Supermarkets and the Supply Chain

It is not only farmers that are affected by the heatwaves. There is a knock-on effect for all parts of the supply chain. For food systems built around tight timing, predictable yields and fast delivery, heatwaves create pressure from soil to shelf.

Supermarkets do not only buy tonnes of produce. They buy size, shape, colour, firmness and shelf life. A farmer's field may still produce food, yet far less of it may meet retail grade.

Supermarkets need full shelves every day, but fresh food becomes less predictable during heatwaves. Challenges for supermarkets include:

• Shorter shelf life as produce picked under heat stress may soften faster. Strawberries, for example.

• More rejected produce as fruit and vegetables may be edible but too small, misshapen, pale, split, or marked. Some retailers already relax cosmetic standards in demanding weather conditions.

• Transport pressure, as refrigerated vans and lorries must work harder in hot weather. Any delay can raise the risk of waste.

• Price volatility due to lower supply and higher costs.

• May have to find alternative sources for produce, such as from abroad.

Retailers also face a public expectation problem. Shoppers often expect strawberries in summer, salad leaves in heat and perfect-looking produce all year. Heatwaves challenge that model.

A misshapen courgette, smaller apple or paler lettuce may still be perfectly good food. Many supermarkets already sell imperfect vegetables, such as Tesco's Perfectly Imperfect and Waitrose's Wonderfully Wonky ranges. However, more “wonky” but edible produce may need to be accepted by supermarkets and consumers in the coming months due to the heatwaves and dry conditions during 2026.

Retailers must balance quality, availability and waste when supplies tighten.

Summary of Possible Effects of Heatwaves on Farming Businesses and Supermarkets

• Reduced quantity and quality of produce by farms

• Reduced income for farmers

• Increased costs for farmers

• Increased logistical demands on supermarkets

• Difficulty for supermarkets in meeting customer expectations or needs

There could also be increased prices for consumers as supermarkets raise their prices to cover the increased costs and low supply of products.

Note that there may well be other effects. This article aims to provide the highlights applied to the GCSE Business (Edexcel) specification.

Key Terms

Customer needs	What a customer requires when purchasing a product.
Produce	Farm grown fruits and vegetables sold in a supermarket or store.
Supplier	A business that provides raw materials, components, finished goods or services.
Supply chain	The activities involved in getting a good or service to the customer.

Free downloadable Key Terms document to support GCSE Business (Edexcel) is available under Business Resources.