Spotlight on GCSE Statistics: Probability and Climate Change
- Dr Alexa Simm
- Aug 3
- 2 min read
Heat waves. Hottest day recorded. Wildfires. Inevitably, talk of climate change and its effects have increased during the summer of 2026.
Climate change is often discussed as if there is one fixed future waiting for us. Probability tells a different story. The future is not a single forecast. It is a range of possible outcomes, shaped by various factors. Studying probability in GCSE helps us to understand this.
Scientists say which outcomes are more likely and which are less likely by using probabilities.
A recent report released by the World Meteorological Organisation included the following probabilities for specific elements of climate change:
There is a 91% likelihood that the average global temperatures will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels temporarily during at least one year between 2026 and 2030.
There is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded.
There is a 75% chance that the average warming across the entire five year period between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Each of these probabilities have a high chance of happening but they are not certain.
GCSE Statistics: Probability and Risk
Probability is not only about what is most likely. It is also about what could cause serious harm. As well as saying how likely certain outcomes are, scientists also report on which outcomes would be dangerous even if their chance of happening is low. This helps us think more clearly about risk.
In GCSE Statistics we learn how risk is basically the probability of a negative event or outcome happening. Some climate risks may be less likely or have a low likelihood of occurring, but still deserve attention because the damage caused if they did happen could be significant.
A low probability does not make a risk irrelevant. There is still a chance it might happen and being aware of this allows us to prepare for such circumstances.
Probabilities may change
The theoretical probability of tossing a head on a coin is always going to be 50% for a fair coin, but the probabilities that scientists report on in relation to the climate may change depending on human choices and activity.
The future is not certain. Not unless it has a probability of 1.
Key Terms
Probability | A measure of how likely it is that an event will happen. |
Risk | The probability of a negative event or outcome occurring. |
Spotlight is a series of Resource Articles from Study Smiles which highlight and link current affairs to elements of the GCSE Business (Edexcel) and GCSE Statistics (Edexcel) specifications. An ideal way to consolidate your learning and build a bank of examples.
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